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       <article class="full-content post-1388 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-77 category-3 tag-berkeley tag-terry-speed category-77-id category-3-id post-seq-1 post-parity-odd meta-position-corners fix" id="post-1388">
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           <a class="entry-title" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/2012/04/25/terry-speed-talk/" rel="bookmark" title="转：泰瑞・速度 —- 巨擘今天的演讲及八卦">
            转：泰瑞・速度 —- 巨擘今天的演讲及八卦
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           4月
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        <span class="updated" title="2012-04-25T23:22:50+00:00">
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          <p>
           转载一个师弟撰写的关于
           <a href="http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~terry/" target="_blank">
            Terry Speed
           </a>
           的八卦，小剧透：
           <img src="http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/photos/faculty/terry.jpg"/>
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            In my opinion, statistics follows this formulas above:
           </p>
           <p>
            Experiments + Data — (model) –&gt; results + uncertainty ==&gt; understand the world!
           </p>
           <p>
            — by Terry 3/19/2012
           </p>
           <p>
            下午的时候，我在hold office hour，去上厕所。正好在厕所门口遇到泰瑞，我像往常遇到他一样打个招呼：“泰瑞，你好！”
           </p>
           <p>
            “嗯，你好！”泰瑞总是像往常一样看看我，然后招牌式的笑容。我猜测他八成不知道我名字。Anyway, 这不影响我对他得敬仰。
           </p>
           <p>
            我突然想起来Howard提起来的事。就犯二式的顺口问：听说你今天要给个lecture啊？
           </p>
           <p>
            泰瑞像个孩子一样笑了笑，习惯性的搓了搓手：嗯，嗯，听说之后的食物很好，你应该去听听然后吃点。呵呵。[…]
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           全文参看:
           <a href="http://honvey.blogspot.com/2012/04/blog-post.html" target="_blank">
            泰瑞・速度 —- 巨擘今天的演讲及八卦
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          at 23:22
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       <article class="full-content post-912 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-84 category-83 category-66 tag-berkeley tag-leo-breiman tag-peter-bickel tag-56 tag-55 tag-50 tag-51 category-84-id category-83-id category-66-id post-seq-2 post-parity-even meta-position-corners fix" id="post-912">
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           <a class="entry-title" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/2012/02/18/leo-breiman-speech-in-chinese/" rel="bookmark" title="25年后的统计系会是什么样？(Leo Breiman在1994年伯克利统计系毕业典礼致辞)">
            25年后的统计系会是什么样？(Leo Breiman在1994年伯克利统计系毕业典礼致辞)
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           2月
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           18
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           2012
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           [Note: This is a translation of the speech given by Professor Leo Breiman at the graduation ceremony of Department of Statistics at University of California， Berkeley in 1994.
           <a href="http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/%7Edpurdy/Breiman-1994-commencement.html" target="_blank">
            The original online version of the transcript
           </a>
           is credited to
           <a href="http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~dpurdy/" target="_blank">
            David Purdy
           </a>
           and how he dug this master piece out is mentioned
           <a href="http://taoshistat.wordpress.com/2011/10/12/leos-prediction-from-1994/" target="_blank">
            here
           </a>
           .]
          </p>
          <p>
           <strong>
            伯克利统计系1994年毕业典礼致辞
           </strong>
          </p>
          <p>
           by
           <a href="http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~breiman/" target="_blank">
            Professor Leo Breiman
           </a>
          </p>
          <p>
           很久以前，Peter Bickel 请我做一个毕业典礼致辞。Peter 是聪明的。他知道，如果你提前很久请人在似乎很遥远的将来发言，他们可能会答应。我答应了。但随着时间的到来，现实紧凑起来。朋友说，“讲一些很长的笑话”。除了我不擅长讲笑话的事实外，讲笑话似乎也不恰当。相反，我决定谈谈我们共同的东西 – 这个我们都是其中一部分的，古怪和有趣的领域。
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           <a class="entry-title" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/2011/11/18/teaching-with-david-freedman/" rel="bookmark" title="Teaching with David Freedman">
            Teaching with David Freedman
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           11月
          </span>
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           18
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          <span class="year">
           2011
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          <p>
           In the last semester at Berkeley, I worked as a Graduate Student Instructor (GSI, the name for teaching assistant in the UC system). The course was an undergraduate intro statistics class and the instructor is David Freedman. When I got his email asking me to be his TA, I had no choice except agreeing. In my advisor’s words, “When he asks someone to be his TA, treat it as an honor and just do it.”
          </p>
          <p>
           When David passed away in October 2008 at age 70, the
           <a href="http://berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2008/10/20_freedman.shtml" target="_blank">
            press release from Berkeley
           </a>
           noted:
          </p>
          <p>
           <em>
            “Freedman’s transition from being a mathematical statistician to a creative practitioner of applied statistics occurred in part, by his own account, in response to the challenges of undergraduate teaching on the UC Berkeley campus,” Collier said. “His students were bored with statistics courses and with the abstracted examples that were standard fare in textbooks,” leading Freedman to dig up practical examples in many applied areas. [……]
           </em>
          </p>
          <p>
           <em>
            He wrote six textbooks, including the highly regarded undergraduate text, “
            <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Statistics-4th-David-Freedman/dp/0393929728/" target="_blank">
             Statistics
            </a>
            ,” with co-authors Robert Pisani and Roger Purves, now in its fourth edition. The book is “a widely used undergraduate textbook, crystal clear, a delight to read and to teach from, broad, deep and meticulously accurate in every detail,” Stark said. “It transformed the way many people taught statistics from a formula-driven, plug-in-the-numbers approach to a focus on
            <strong>
             critical thinking
            </strong>
            .”
            <img src="http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41FTnmlZVbL._SS500_.jpg"/>
           </em>
          </p>
          <p>
           At first, it seemed strange that he insisted me to attend all his lectures. Being a TA, I have never been required to attend the lecture. Sometimes, you just got to do what you were told to do :). I went to his lectures every time and I had to admit at the end that I learned things I have never thought about. He had constantly drawn straightforward but misled conclusions from data and challenged the students to criticize his arguments. You almost never knew he is telling you what to believe or what not to believe before he turned the face of the card. However, he always gave a convincing concluding remark to summarize the whole discussion. It is fascinating to see critical thinking in full display.
          </p>
          <p>
           I clearly remember two pieces of advises he gave me during that semester. When I asked him for advise on job interviews before I went on to my first one, he told me, “Look, I’m a
           <strong>
            famous
           </strong>
           statistician. However, I know nothing about what you are doing. When you gave the talk, you are the most knowledgeable person on these topics in the room. Just tell your story and be yourself. If they like you, they will hire you. If they don’t, there is nothing you can do and nothing to worry about.” His words gave me confidence to behave just like myself without worrying.
          </p>
          <p>
           He offered me another piece of advisor after we finished grading the finals in his house. As I was walking towards the door, I somehow felt emotional and wanted to say a few words to him. I wanted to thank him for his support and guidance. He looked calmly and told me, “Just do what you feel right to do, and don’t look around.” It was the last time I talked to him. Very often, I feel I owe him so much. I cannot pay anything back to him and the best I can do is passing what I learned from him to others. This is the main reason why I’m writing these blog posts — it just feels right.
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            Statistical consulting with David Freedman
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           12
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          <p>
           One year after taking applied statistics course from David, I signed up for his second “class”,
           <a href="http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/43" target="_blank">
            statistical consulting
           </a>
           . It was a rare opportunity  to learn from someone with so much experience in consulting.
          </p>
          <div class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 410px">
           <img src="http://owpdb.mfo.de/photoNormal?id=9385"/>
           <p class="wp-caption-text">
            David A. Freedman (copyright: George M. Bergman)
           </p>
          </div>
          <p>
           According to
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_A._Freedman_(statistician)" target="_blank">
            Wikipedia
           </a>
           , “Freedman was a consulting or testifying expert on statistics in disputes involving
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employment_discrimination" title="Employment discrimination">
            employment discrimination
           </a>
           , fair loan practices,
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_rights" title="Voting rights">
            voting rights
           </a>
           , duplicate signatures on petitions, railroad taxation,
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ecological_inference&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" title="Ecological inference (page does not exist)">
            ecological inference
           </a>
           , flight patterns of
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golf_ball" title="Golf ball">
            golf balls
           </a>
           ,
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Price_scanner&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" title="Price scanner (page does not exist)">
            price scanner
           </a>
           errors,
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_Spongiform_Encephalopathy" title="Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy">
            Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy
           </a>
           (Mad Cow disease), and sampling. He consulted for the
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Canada" title="Bank of Canada">
            Bank of Canada
           </a>
           , the
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Carnegie_Commission&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" title="Carnegie Commission (page does not exist)">
            Carnegie Commission
           </a>
           , the
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco" title="San Francisco">
            City of San Francisco
           </a>
           , the
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_of_Los_Angeles" title="County of Los Angeles">
            County of Los Angeles
           </a>
           , and the
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve" title="Federal Reserve">
            Federal Reserve
           </a>
           , as well as the U.S. departments of energy, treasury, justice, and commerce.”
          </p>
          <p>
           Guess that was the first task we were assigned for the class? Wondering around the campus and posting posters in every building. I know it sounds like old school, but we needed clients :). When there is no problem, there is no need for data or analysis.
          </p>
          <p>
           I remember the first project my partner and I run into was money involved. We were excited to help predicting which alumni has a high tendency to donate back to Berkeley. It was funny that zip code was such a powerful predictor and it is almost universally powerful in most of social studies (as David told us). “location, location, and location!”
          </p>
          <p>
           The most practical (and painful) lesson we learned from David in consulting is that he insisted us not to give any suggestion in the first meeting. See, “we are eager to help, but … ” We should not give answers or suggestions to any problem without understanding its background, even if what the client asked is just how to calculate a p-value using a t-test. It is funny how our profession has squeezed into this corner. In many situations, as soon as one gets a p-value &lt; 0.05, one hypothesis is rejected and (statistically) significant finding is claimed. Ironically, statisticians who created the p-values are the ones who are acting like policemen holding the last stands now. Critically investigating the problem and the data together may push us a few steps closer to “be useful”. Otherwise, we probably act no better than a software package (like SAS or R).
          </p>
          <p>
           In the meanwhile, we also learned to be creative when working with clients who have already collected their data according a “flawed” design. We need help them. In David’s words, “Treat them as your patients. If your patient is bleeding, it does not help to blame them on how they get into an accident. Stop the bleeding and save him/her first, then educate.”. In many cases, how to help them with an imperfect design or data involves developing and researching for new statistical methods. It all goes back to why statistics exists as a field in the first place: help people answer questions with data.
          </p>
          <p>
           [To be continued ……]
          </p>
          <hr/>
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            Learning applied statistics from David Freedman
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        <span class="updated" title="2011-11-07T22:47:24+00:00">
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          <p>
           <a href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/files/2011/11/book.jpg">
            <img src="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/files/2011/11/book.jpg?w=175"/>
           </a>
           Just suit up for the first time since the job interview season of Winter 2005. As one of those who got promoted this year, I attended the
           <a href="http://library.osu.edu/blogs/librarynews/2011/10/27/faculty-recognition-program-november-7/" target="_blank">
            Faculty Recognition Program
           </a>
           today and got a chance to look closely at the book, “
           <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Models-Practice-David-Freedman/dp/0521743850" target="_blank">
            Statistical Models, Theory and Practice
           </a>
           ” by
           <a href="http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~freedman/" target="_blank">
            David A. Freedman
           </a>
           , that I “donated” (the university is paying for it) to the library. I’m honored to be able to pay my tribute to him, who open my world of useful statistics.
          </p>
          <p>
           The firs time I met David was when I took his applied statistic class at Berkeley. At that time, I passed my Ph.D. qualify exam, started with some research projects and felt like I knew Statistics. In his class, I learned quickly that I knew NOTHING about Statistics except some abstract mathematical symbols.
          </p>
          <p>
           The first meeting of the class was the most wield period I have sit thought as a student. Several days before the first class, every student got his email in which a list of three papers were assigned for reading. We were good students so we all read the paper carefully, I assume at least. Then here came the first meeting of the class. David came in and explained several things about the course structures before we went to the more serious business, paper discussion.
          </p>
          <p>
           The discussion started like this. He calmly sit in a chair and asked “questions?”. Silence, …, silence, …, and longer silence. We had not expected that we were supposed to “initiate” the discussion instead of “participating”. Then he asked gain, “questions on the paper?”. We just sit there for more than 10 minutes, flipping through papers  and trying to find a meaning question to ask. Seems like we would sit there forever if we did not come up with any questions. It felt like the longest class I have ever taken.
          </p>
          <p>
           The format of the class kept the same way for the whole semester. Students first read the assigned papers and come up with questions about anything and everything about the paper. David entertained every question. The questions ranges from “why have the authors picked this model?” to “why have the authors NOT picked that model?”, from “Does the model fit the data well?” Do the data support the model at all?”, from “Does the evidence support the conclusion?” to “Is the evidence related to the conclusion?”. The interesting part is that about one third of the papers we discussed were written by him. We have to (at least try to) criticize the paper and he enjoys doing do as well. Sometime he would defend the paper for while and then add his own critics.
          </p>
          <p>
           Trying to recall what I have learned from the class, the most striking thing is that I cannot remember what models or methods we went over (there are a lot of them). I have to admit that I have a really bad memory. At the same time, I do remember one thing: Check the model assumptions and check them again and again.
          </p>
          <p>
           In an age of having so much computation power and advanced software packages to run almost any analysis in a short period time, our ability in drawing proper conclusion from data through mathematical inference is not necessarily improved unless we carefully check if we are using the right tools to answer the right questions. Thinking critically about each step of any analysis is the key to a proper conclusion. This is the first lesson I learned from David.
          </p>
          <p>
           [To be continued ……]
          </p>
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          at 22:47
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           prediction
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           probability
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           Ralph Kahn
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           人口普查
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           叶诗文
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           大数据
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          <a class="tag-link-74 tag-link-position-28" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e5%a5%a5%e6%9e%97%e5%8c%b9%e5%85%8b/" style="font-size: 16.75pt;" title="3个话题">
           奥林匹克
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          <a class="tag-link-58 tag-link-position-29" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e5%b8%8c%e6%a0%bc%e6%96%af%e7%8e%bb%e8%89%b2%e5%ad%90/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           希格斯玻色子
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          <a class="tag-link-21 tag-link-position-30" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e5%b9%bf%e5%91%8a/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           广告
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          <a class="tag-link-22 tag-link-position-31" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e6%83%85%e7%bb%aa%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           情绪预测
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          <a class="tag-link-180 tag-link-position-32" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e6%8c%96%e6%8e%98/" style="font-size: 13.25pt;" title="2个话题">
           数据挖掘
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          <a class="tag-link-47 tag-link-position-33" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e6%96%b0%e6%b5%aa%e6%96%b0%e9%97%bb/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           新浪新闻
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          <a class="tag-link-59 tag-link-position-34" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%a7%e5%9e%8b%e5%bc%ba%e5%ad%90%e5%af%b9%e6%92%9e%e6%9c%ba/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           欧洲大型强子对撞机
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          <a class="tag-link-15 tag-link-position-35" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e6%b0%91%e7%a7%91/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           民科
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          <a class="tag-link-27 tag-link-position-36" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e7%94%b7%e5%a5%b3%e6%af%94%e4%be%8b/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           男女比例
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          <a class="tag-link-48 tag-link-position-37" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e7%95%99%e5%ad%a6%e7%94%b3%e8%af%b7/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           留学申请
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          <a class="tag-link-50 tag-link-position-38" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e7%b2%be%e7%ae%97%e5%b8%88/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           精算师
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          <a class="tag-link-183 tag-link-position-39" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e7%bb%9f%e8%ae%a1/" style="font-size: 19.666666666667pt;" title="4个话题">
           统计
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          <a class="tag-link-51 tag-link-position-40" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e7%bb%9f%e8%ae%a1%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           统计学家
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          <a class="tag-link-64 tag-link-position-41" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e7%bd%ae%e4%bf%a1%e5%8c%ba%e9%97%b4/" style="font-size: 13.25pt;" title="2个话题">
           置信区间
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          <a class="tag-link-17 tag-link-position-42" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e8%b6%85%e7%ba%a7%e7%a2%97/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           超级碗
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          <a class="tag-link-41 tag-link-position-43" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/tag/%e9%92%9f%e5%b1%b1%e8%af%b4%e4%ba%8b/" style="font-size: 8pt;" title="1个话题">
           钟山说事
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           非诚勿扰
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